Russia Direct Brief: 'Frozen Conflicts in the Post-Soviet Space'
By Nikolay Silaev, William Hill, Iraklii KhintbaRussia Direct Brief #23, August 2015, 19 pages
1. Resolving the conflicts in the post-Soviet space.
2. The thawing of Russia's frozen conflicts.
3. What are the Kremlin's new red lines in the post-Soviet space?
4. Case studies: Abkhazia and Transnistria.
The ongoing escalation of tensions inEastern Ukraine has once again raised the issue of frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space. According to many observers, the crisis in Ukraine is part of a continuing pattern that began seven years ago with the start of the 2008 Russo-Georgian conflict, in which Moscow has consistently sought to intervene in former republics of the Soviet Union in order to advance its own geopolitical goals.
Yet, as this report makes clear, the frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space –Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and Transnistria – differ significantly in both their root causes and in how Russia has attempted to resolve them. This report describes Russia’s overarching security concerns in the post-Soviet space, analyzes the important factors at play in each of these frozen conflicts and provides an overview of Russia’s new red lines in the region. The report also includes first-hand assessments from the representatives of Abkhazia and Transnistria as well as the list of recommendations for how to normalize the situation in the region and achieve better interaction between all parties involved.